Posted on May 01 2012 – 9:00 PM – Posted by: Doug Brady
Perhaps my visit to Vienna last week has left me with too much Freud on the mind. But, as I talk to more people about the consequences of the U.S. oil and gas boom, I can’t help but conclude that we don’t need economists or geologists to help us figure what’s going on – we need a team of psychoanalysts.
A few weeks ago I speculated that perceptions would play a big role in determining the impacts of the U.S. oil and gas boom. If U.S. policymakers came to believe that lower imports should make the United States more independent, they’d act as if that was true. Even if economic logic said that energy independence was a myth, the fact that policymakers believed otherwise would have real consequences.
A series of recent conversations with overseas acquaintances has only reinforced my belief that it’s essential to understand what’s going on inside peoples’ heads if you want to anticipate the consequences on what’s happening on the ground.
Take a recent chat with a well-connected Chinese individual. He told me that Beijing is concerned that the United States will start to neglect Middle East security and sea-lane protection if energy self-sufficiency becomes reality. That, of course, would cause problems for China, since it currently enjoys the benefits of those U.S. efforts for free. To the extent that Chinese leaders start taking steps to compensate for expected U.S. disengagement, those will have real consequences on the ground. The big thing to remember here is that much of this could happen regardless of what U.S. policymakers actually decide to do.